ELECTRIC GENERATING CAPACITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION

摘要

This paper presents a risk assessment framework for evaluating the electric power supply's sustainability and reliability using discrete event simulation technique. The generating capacity system welfare status is observed via power reserve which is the resulting difference between the generated power and load demand. The evaluation consists of three risk indices: the probability of loss of reserve power, the expected power reserve and the expected restoration time. The purpose of these indices is to evaluate the past performance of the generation system and suggest possible future behavior. A discrete event simulation model is developed to represent the electric power generation capacity system. The simulation model consists of three modules, namely, generation capacity, load demand and restoration time. Kuwait generation capacity system is used as case study to demonstrate the proposed technique.