基于风险评估的分布式发电容量优化

摘要

针对分布式电源出力不确定的特点，提出了基于风险评估的分布式发电（DG）容量优化，综合考虑了分布式电源的随机性、负荷的可中断性和中断代价等因素。介绍了风力系统的随机模型和负荷损失模型，阐述了DG孤岛划分和容量优化方法，并通过算例对所述的方法进行验证，结果表明，最大程度减小停电损失的方案即为合适的孤岛划分方案，且分布式发电容量有一个投资回报率最高的点。%Aiming at the uncertainty feature of distributed output power, this paper raised the capacity optimization of distributed genera- tion （DG） based on risk evaluation, comprehensively considering randomness of DG power source, disruption of load and interruption price etc factors. Introduction was made to the stochastic model of wind system and the load loss model and description was made to the DG island division and capacity optimization method. Via examples this paper verified the mentioned method. The result shows that the method reduc- ing power cut loss is the proper method for island division and DG capacity has a highest point for investment return rate.