Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship Between Industrial Structure Change and Economic Growth in Hubei Province of China

摘要

Based on the time-series .data from 1990 to 2006 in Hubei province of China, this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure changes and economic growth through the analysis on the cointegration and granger causation test model. The outcome research indicates: (l)There is long-term stable relation between the fluctuation of industrial structure and the practical economic growth. The industrial policy of adjusting and optimizing industrial structure so as to promote economic growth is active and efficient in Hubei province. (2)The value of tertiary industry and economic growth develop with the same fluctuation, and the influence is huge, which shows the marginal productivity of tertiary industry goes beyond any other marginal productivity, tertiary occupation is processed of developmental potential. (3)Between individual GDP and the increase of the proportion of tertiary industry exists no obvious mutual causation relation. (4)The increase of the proportion of tertiary industry is the cause of the increase of tertiary industry production rather than the way around.