Cosmic Rays and Space Weather Prediction

摘要

Galactic and solar cosmic rays registered by neutron monitors can play a useful key key-role in space weather storms forecasting and in the specification of magnetic properties of coronal mass ejections, shocks and ground level enhancements. In order to produce a real real-time prediction of space weather phenomena, only real real-time da data from a ta neutron monitor network should be employed. Interplanetary perturbations, initiated in the solar atmosphere, affect galactic cosmic rays. In some cases their influence on the cosmic ray intensity results in data signatures that can po pos- ssibly be us sibly used to predict geomagnetic storm onsets. The concept of Space Weather was launched before a decade to ed describe the short short-term variations in the different form of solar activity and their effect in the near Earth environment. Space weather affects the Earth’ Earth’s atmosphere in many ways and through various phenomena. Among them, geoma s geomag- gnetic storms and the variability of the galactic cosmic ray flux belong to the most important ones as for the lower a netic at- tmosphere. We have performed superposed epoch analysis using hou mosphere. hourly neutron monitor data for three different rly ground ground-based neutron neutron-monitoring stations of different cut off rigidity as a measure of cosmic ray intensity. In the pr present work the superposed epoch analysis has been done for the time of occurrence of CMEs are sent defined as key time (zero or epoch hour/day). It is noteworthy that the use of cosmic ray data in space weather research plays a key role for its prediction. We have studied the cosmic ray, geomagnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to unde under- rstand th stand the physical mechanism responsible for Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storm that can be used as a sign e signa- ature to forecast space weather.