Predicting Guangxi Provincial Total Value of Foreign Trade

摘要

This paper examines the impact of the cooperation between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China on Guangxi Provincial total value of foreign trade. The study uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to fit the total value of foreign trade with total retailing of social consuming goods and urban per capita disposable income, then leads in dummy to fit total retailing of social consuming goods, and applies Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) to fit urban per capita disposable income. And then predicts the value of the three indexes from 2010 to 2012. The thesis analyzes the possible factors that may influence the veracity of the prediction and offers political proposal.