Research on time-choosing behaviors of travelers based on AFT model

摘要

The study of the time-choosing behaviors of travelers helps for understanding the process of travelers' decisions. Also it is the premise of enacting and implementing traffic management strategy and policy. The data, which is from travel survey of Jilin City, is used in this research. And the law of choose behaviors of departure times and travel times to next stops were analyzed by using duration model, as well, different preferences of time chosen as an individual varies in perspective of their social economies or activity-travel characteristics were also discussed using AFT model(Accelerated Failuretime Model). The result shows that, the distribution of start times and travel times according to Weibull function and several factors influenced accelerant or decelerate the change of speed; array start times, the model could forest the happen ratios of activities along time axes of non-workers. These fundamental works provide some knowledge to further process in the research of the behaviors of trave lers' decisions and simulation forecasting.