A Cluster Ensemble Strategy for Asian Handicap Betting

摘要

Football betting has grown rapidly in the past two decades, among which fixed odds betting and Asian handicap betting are the most popular mechanisms. Much previous research work mainly focus on fixed odds betting, however, it is lack of studying on Asian handicap betting. In this paper, we focus on Asian handicap betting and aim to propose an intelligent decision system that can make betting strategy. To achieve this, a cluster ensemble model is presented, which is based on the fact that matches with similar pattern of expected goal trend series may have the same actual outcome. Firstly, we set up the component cluster which classifies matches by the pattern of expected goal trend series and then makes the same betting decision for matches that belong to the same group. Furthermore, we adopt plurality voting approach to integrate component clusters and then determine the final betting strategy. Using this strategy on the big five European football leagues data, it yields a positive return.