Unconventional Forecasting Method for Brown Field on Primary Depletion - An Example of a Naturally Fractured Reservoir

摘要

A novel “in-house” technique has been developed for infill well production forecasting for brown fieldsrnon primary depletion as an alternative method to forecast production when reservoir simulation models arernnot available. The paper demonstrates the use of an unconventional approach to forecast infill wellrnperformance for a complex carbonate reservoir with fractures and vuggy porosity on primary depletion.rnThe flow equation was used to determine the initial rates of new development wells and to addressrnexpected pressure depletion while a new methodology was developed to take into account well interference.rnThe interference equation takes into account five factors classified as main contributors to wellrnproduction interference: distance to nearby producers, years on production of existing wells and respectiverninitial rates, presence of faults and density of natural fractures. A correlation between these factors and lostrnoil volume was established based on historical production data and used to predict the interference of newrndevelopment wells taking into account their locations. The statistical analysis factored all combinationsrnof potential outcomes for new wells based on historical data and built probabilistic cumulative distributionrncurve to predict performance of new wells, generating a P10/P50/P90 range of production forecast. Also,rna methodology was developed to account for gas and water production, which is also described in thernpaper.