THE COMBINED USE OF SCENARIO AND MODELLING TECHNIQUES FOR INFORMING NEAR TERM ENERGY POLICY DECISIONS WITH RELATION TO LONG TERM ENERGY FUTURES

摘要

Scenario planning techniques provide a framework for decision making in the context of future uncertainty. Such techniques are considered to be of use to energy policy because it is an area in which crucial near term decisions must be made in the context of long term uncertainty. Energy-economic models such as MARKAL also provide a framework for decision making with regard to energy futures- they operate at a high level of technological detail, but with a reduced level of detail regarding social, political and cultural interactions, whose impacts are treated as broad assumptions within the model, which can be varied through sensitivity analysis. This paper aims to consider the extent to which scenario approaches can complement modelling tools in order to deliver a more nuanced and policy relevant analysis, through a review of the historical development of scenarios, and their use in a range of recent UK energy futures studies.