To what extent does urban density influence the modal split? The Lisbon Metropolitan Area case study

摘要

The relationship between urban density and car use appears to have a growing importance as the urban areas sprawl and tend to be more diffuse. Considering this point of view, this paper analyses a recent mobility survey in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA). The main objective addressed is to know to what extent does density influence the modal split in identical situations of public transport supply and of population socio-economic levels. The car use weight was considered the dependent variable. Two approaches were developed: The first one considers the urban density, for each specific socio-economic level, as the only explicative variable. The second approach uses a multivariate regression analysis, using as explicative variables of car use the density, the car availability, family income, the public transport supply and the public transport levels of comfort (measured by the number of transfers). The results obtained, with both methods, are compared and discussed, in order to identify the real weight of density as an explicative variable of car use in LMA.