Benefit Sharing Opportunities in Transboundary Basins: Evidence from the Amu Darya

摘要

This article examines impacts of infrastructure, water allocation protocols, and climate variabilityrnon economic outcomes in the Amu Darya Basin for the countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan,rnTurkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Its aim is to identify policies that could lead to basin-widernopportunities for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which the economic welfare of allrnriparians is improved. We examine the development of storage infrastructure and the allocationrnof water within the Basin. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identifyrnopportunities for improving the welfare of these four riparians that share the basin’s waters. Anrnanalysis is presented that characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized waterusernpatterns without and with new reservoir storage capacity in place. The analysis describes arnprogram that could improve economic welfare in all four nations. It takes into account potentialrnimpacts of water shortages from drought or climate variability. Results indicate that a combinationrnof targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation can produce outcomesrnfor which added economic benefits exceed incremental costs for each riparian. Results identifyrnopportunities to foster cooperation among riparian nations through development of water storagerninfrastructure and associated efficient water allocation that improves the economic welfare for eachrnriparian nation in a basin. Patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potentialrninto actual gains for all countries.