Uncertainty Management for Intelligence Analysis

摘要

Considerable concern has arisen regarding the quality of intelligence analysis. This has been in large part motivated by the task, prior to the Iraq war, of determining whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. One problem that made this analysis difficult was the uncertainty in much of the information available to the intelligence analysts. In this work we introduce some tools that can be of use to intelligence analysts for representing and processing uncertain information. We make considerable use of technologies based on fuzzy sets and related disciplines such as approximate reasoning.