CALIBRATION OF AN ATMOSPHERIC/HYDROLOGICAL MODEL SYSTEM FOR FLOOD FORECASTING IN THE ODRA WATERSHED

摘要

Hydrologic models commonly contain parameters that can only be inferred by a trial-and-error process that adjusts the parameter values to closely match the input-output behaviour of the model to the real system it represents. Traditional calibration procedures, which involve manual adjustment of the parameter values are labour-intensive, and their success is strongly dependent on the experience of the modeller. This paper describes the application of the objective calibration methodology SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution - University of Arizona) to the hydrological model SEROS for the Odra watershed. SEROS combines the rainfall-runoff model SEWAB (Surface Energy and Water Balance) and a routing scheme. Simulated and observed time periods of the discharge show reasonable agreement during the calibration period as well as for the verification period. The latter includes the 1997 major flooding event.