ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND POSSIBLE ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DAMAGE FROM LARGE-SCALE NATURAL AND MAN-INDUCED CATASTROPHES IN ECOLOGICALLY VULNERABLE REGIONS OF CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS

摘要

Various threats to civilization have been recently observed to increase in number. They include natural and man-induced catastrophes, international terrorism, ecological imbalance, global climate change and many other hazards. According to UN and scientific forecasts, an increasing tendency for the catastrophe scale will obtain during the 21st century. Humankind has been facing most of the above issues for the first time and, therefore, there are no good suitable methods provided for solving them. A concerted effort is required by all States of the world community. This paper presents our international program which includes the participation of six countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The program includes separate projects, developed by each participating country and briefly described here. Today, one of the possible methods is the assessment of risks and the possible ecological and economic damage resulting from catastrophes. We pay attention the most ecologically precarious regions and single out the typical factors that significantly increase the risk of natural and man-induced catastrophes. The prediction, prevention and assessment of the above mentioned threats are especially real and important for newly independent states, where the system of safety, frontier and customs control, strict visa control and other state safety measures have not yet been developed. Also, it is easier to implement attacks of terrorists in these regions. The consequences of such catastrophes will be followed by major human and huge material losses, and extremely negative irreversible environmental effects possibly of a global scale. Our Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IBRAE RAS) has its own experience in these scientific directions.