EXTENDING THE DANUBE FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM WITH THE USE OF METEOROLOGICAL ENSEMBLES

摘要

Flood forecasting schemes may have the most diverse structure depending on catchment size, response or concentration time and the availability of real time input data. The centre of weight of the hydrologicai forecasting system is often shifted from hydrologicai tools to the meteorological observation and forecasting systems. In lowland river sections, simple flood routing techniques prevail where accuracy of discharge estimation might depend mostly on the accuracy of upstream discharge estimation. In large river basin systems, both elements are present. Attempts are made enabling the use of an ensemble of short and medium term meteorological forecast results for real-time flood forecasting by coupling meteorological and hydrologicai modelling tools.