Dynamic SPA-Markov Evaluation Model of Operation Safety for Terminal Area Airspace System

摘要

In order to solve the problem of uncertainties in operation safety evaluation for terminal area airspace system, Set Pair Analysis (SPA) and Markov chain are combined to propose a dynamic evaluation model for operation safety in terminal area airspace system. In the model, firstly, on the basis of system analysis theory, the operation safety evaluation index system is established for terminal area airspace system, then based on this the conception and definition about relationship degree in SPA is adopted to describe the safety level and change characteristics of operation safety in terminal area airspace system, finally the safety state transition probability matrix is determined by Markov chain to predict the dynamic change tendency in operation safety for terminal area airspace system. The actual example on Shanghai terminal area shows that, the proposed model can accurately describe the dynamic change characteristics of operation safety for terminal area airspace system. This verifies its effectiveness and feasibility.