首页> 外文会议>Joint annual meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science and the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology >A High Resolution Spatiotemporal Model for In-Vehicle Black Carbon Exposure: First Application on Epidemiological Cohorts
【24h】

A High Resolution Spatiotemporal Model for In-Vehicle Black Carbon Exposure: First Application on Epidemiological Cohorts

机译:用于车载黑碳曝光的高分辨率时空模型:流行病学队列的第一次应用

获取原文

摘要

Several studies have shown that a significant amount of daily air pollution exposure is inhaled during trips. In this study, car drivers assessed their own black carbon exposure under real-life conditions (223 h of data from 2013). The spatiotemporal exposure of the car drivers is modeled using a data science approach. In-vehicle exposure is highly dynamical and is strongly related to the local traffic dynamics. An extensive set of potential covariates was used to model the in-vehicle black carbon exposure with a temporal resolution of 10 s. Traffic was retrieved directly from traffic databases and indirectly by attributing the trips through a noise map as an alternative proxy for traffic. Modeling by generalized additive models (GAM) shows non-linear effects for meteorology and diurnal traffic patterns. A fitted diurnal pattern explains indirectly the complex diurnal variability of the exposure due to the non-linear interaction between traffic density and distance to the preceding vehicles. An external validation, based on a dataset gathered in 2010-2011, quantifies recent exposure reductions inside cars at 33% (mean) and 50% (median). The EU Euro 5 PM emission standard (in force since 2009) explains the largest part of the discrepancy between the measurement campaign in 2013 and the validation dataset. An in-depth analysis of the model covariates and modelling approach will be discussed. The requirements of the epidemiological databases to enable health evaluations will be summarized. A first real-life application of the model on an epidemiological cohort will be introduced.
机译:几项研究表明,在旅行期间吸入大量的日常空气污染暴露。在这项研究中,汽车司机在现实条件下评估了自己的黑碳曝光(2013年的数据223小时)。使用数据科学方法建模汽车驱动程序的时空暴露。车载曝光是高度动态的,与局部交通动态强烈相关。一系列广泛的潜在协变量用于模拟车载黑碳暴露,时间分辨率为10 s。通过归因于噪声图作为流量的替代代理,直接从流量数据库中检索流量。广义添加剂模型(GAM)的建模显示了气象学和日交通模式的非线性效果。由于交通密度与与前一辆车辆的距离之间的非线性相互作用,所拟合的昼夜图案间接解释了曝光的复数变化。基于2010-2011收集的数据集的外部验证量量量化了最近在汽车内的曝光减少33%(平均值)和50%(中位数)。欧盟欧元5 PM 5 PM排放标准(自2009年以来一直部队)解释了2013年测量运动与验证数据集之间的最大部分。将讨论对模型协调因子和建模方法的深入分析。将总结流行病学数据库的要求,以实现健康评估。将引入对流行病学队列队列模型的第一个真实寿命应用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号