Failure Probability for Extreme Load Cases evaluated by FE-calculations - A Case Study for the Rockfall Protection Gallery Rieinertobel

摘要

The safety level evaluation of an existing reinforced concrete rockfall protection gallery for a specific load case is investigated by estimating the failure probability based on the results of dynamic impact response analyses. The three-dimensional elasto-plastic finite element model contains four main parameters with large influence on the impact resistance. Ten FE-simulations with different combinations for the gallery parameters are carried out. A failure criteria is defined by the elastic recovery ratio and used as damage index of the roof slab. A regression function between the elastic recovery and model parameters is obtained from the FE-results and used to establish a surrogate model of the elastic recovery ratio. From it, the probability of failure is assessed by a Monte Carlo simulation. This methodology to predict the failure probability of a structure for a given extreme load case considering the model uncertainties can be applied independently from the model and can be used to compare the safety level with the requirements from the structural codes.