Failure probability evaluation device and failure probability evaluation method

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a hem portion even when the central portion and the hem portion of an occurrence frequency distribution of physical quantities related to stress and strength, such as stress and strength, or a load, do not follow the same probability distribution. Providing a technology for improving the evaluation accuracy of the failure probability by accurately estimating the probability density function of the above and a highly accurate failure probability evaluation device [Solution] A failure model for calculating the failure probability of a mechanical system, and a failure model. A storage unit that stores the occurrence frequency distribution of the probability variable used in the above, a tail estimation unit that estimates the probability density function at the base of the occurrence frequency distribution based on an extreme statistical model, and a probability other than the tail of the occurrence frequency distribution. Probability density function estimation having a central estimation part that estimates the density function and a connection part that estimates the overall probability density function of the occurrence frequency distribution using the probability density function at the tail and the probability density function other than the tail. A failure probability evaluation device comprising a unit and a failure probability calculation unit that calculates a failure probability of a mechanical system based on an overall probability density function and a failure model. [Selection diagram] Fig. 2