Caribbean Ports, Inland Logistics, and the Panama Canal Expansion: A Mode and Port Choice Analysis

摘要

This paper develops an international freight transport model for predicting the importers' behavior in the port/path-choice decisions after the Panama Canal expansion. A real-data case study for Colombian ports was developed assuming that the expansion will reduce the time to cross the canal. Two infrastructure investment projects of the Colombian government were evaluated as likely scenarios. Results show the adequacy of the model for its predictive purpose and its usability to carry sensitivity analyses of scenarios. The overriding outcome is that the model could guide governmental decisions on the infrastructures domain by demonstrating their effect in the logistic realm.