Modeling and Simulation for Public Policy Decision-Making: A Preliminary Causal Loop for the Case Study of Legalized Abortion and Crime

摘要

Modeling and simulation (M&S) has consistently proved itself as a valuable tool that is well-suited for strategic, policy-level decision-making situations. This research attempts to further prove the utility of M&S in that regard. The relationship between legalized abortion and crime is a contentious issue that is much publicized in the popular press. It is an issue that has major implications for public policy. Any understanding of abortion and crime linkage should be viewed from many perspectives, and incorporate other factors contributing to crime, to test the hypothesis that the change in abortion policy in the U.S. had a demonstrable effect on crime rates. This research will build a case for using System Dynamics as a modeling tool through the proposal of a preliminary causal loop for this problem.