Study on the Early Warning Method of Real Estate Bubble Based on Binary Response Model

摘要

Designing an effective real estate bubble early warning index system using available statistic index is significantly meaningful in practice. This paper investigates the application of binary response model, and studies on the early warning method of real estate bubble based on the current research on different real estate bubble supervising or early warning index systems. Thailand real estate market is taken for example to do the empirical study. As a result, the binary response model is a comparatively exact forecasting method. It also proves that relative variance of stock price can not forecast real estate bubble differed from other research.