Establishing Model for Fund Demand Forecasting of Construction Industry in China in the Eleventh Five-year Plan

摘要

Establish the model for fund demand forecasting of construction industry in China in the eleventh fiveyear plan. Use the basic data of construction industry in the years of 1995-2004 based on CobbDouglas production function, including value added, number of employed persons and total investment. The value added and total investment of construction industry of the years are transformed into the price of 2004 by price indices. When using OLS method, the result of the model shows colineary. Use ridge regression to eliminate the effect of colineary and establish the final forecast model. R2 of the final model is 0.904, F is 33.130, √VIF is 0.975, the colineary is eliminated and the final model passed all the tests. The forecast model is rational.