Trajectory Uncertainty Modeling for Queuing Analysis ofthe National Airspace System

摘要

An important step in the design of next-generation air-traffic system is, that of assessing the impact of uncertainty and precision on traffic flow efficiency. Queuing models provide an efficient alternative to Monte-Carlo simulations in this endeavor. The approach models individual sources of uncertainty such as navigation sensor performance, air-traffic management actions, weather, and aircraft performance parameters. Once stochastic models capturing the effects of the trajectory uncertainties and precision are developed, statistical methods are used to relate them to the queuing network model parameters. The queuing network model can then be used to analytically quantify the traffic flow efficiency. A systematic procedure for calculating service time distributions due to various uncertainty components is developed and presented in this paper.