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Excess monetary liquidity and asset prices in China: An empirical investigation

机译:中国的货币流动性和资产价格过剩:实证调查

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This article examines the long run relationship between M2-to-GDP ratio, the indictor of excess liquidity, and asset prices for China through cointegration estimation procedure. It also implements the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to explore simultaneously the short- and long-run causation in the modeling process. Results from the cointegration tests reveal that excess liquidity, asset prices, and the growth rate of household deposit share long run equilibrium relationship, while the results from the VECM indicate the absence of short run causality between excess liquidity and asset prices, but in the long run asset price and the growth rate of household deposit have casual influence on excess liquidity. In addition, the study finds that there is unidirectional causality from the growth rate of household deposit to the stock price in the short run but not vice versa.
机译:本文通过协整估算程序审查了M2-To-GDP比率,对中国过度流动性的指令和资产价格之间的长期关系。它还实现了向量纠错模型(VECM),同时探索建模过程中的短期和长期因果关系。协整试验结果表明,流动性,资产价格过剩,资产价格和家庭押金的增长率股平均衡关系,而VECM的结果表明过度流动资金和资产价格之间的短期因果关系,但在长期以来经营资产价格和家庭押金的增长率对过度流动性有休闲影响。此外,该研究发现,在短期内,家庭存款的增长率与股票价格有单向因果关系,但不反之亦然。

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