Modeling Co-circulation of Influenza Strains in Heterogeneous Urban Populations: The Role of Herd Immunity and Uncertainty Factors

摘要

In this research, we aimed to assess the influence of herd immunity levels on the process of co-circulation of influenza strains in urban populations and to establish how the stochastic nature of epidemic processes might affect this influence. A spatially explicit individual-based model of multistrain epidemic dynamics was developed and simulations were performed using a 2010 synthetic population of Saint Petersburg, Russia. According to the simulation results, the largest influenza outbreaks are associated with low immunity levels to the virus strains which caused by these strains. At the same time, high immunity levels per se do not prevent outbreaks, although they might affect the resulting levels of disease prevalence. The results of the study will be used in the research of long-term immunity formation dynamics to influenza strains in Russian cities.