A Methodology for Evidence-Based Data-Driven Decision Support in Policymaking

摘要

Policymakers have the crucial task to develop innovative solutions to increasingly complex policy problems - sometimes referred to as ‘wicked’ problems - that lack the sense of clarity that most of the problems in science or engineering have, where a problem statement can be clearly defined. A DSS appropriate for handling ‘wicked’ problems in policymaking should help decision-makers cope with the problem's complexity, facilitate the assessing of multiple alternatives, and favor a discussion towards a common agenda. Such DSS could promote institutional efficiency and strengthen institutional integrity. Considering such requirements, we develop a methodology for the systematic exploration of the problem's solution space using expert knowledge. The application of the methodology in a specific use case suggests the methodology could be applied in a DSS for the identification of patterns and trends in policy-relevant data, the identification of possible policy configurations, the drafting of alternative scenarios based on the possible configurations, and institutional efficiency in terms of time and resources needed to formulate a solution to the policy problem.