Empirical Study on China's Financial Risk Early Warning under the New Normal

摘要

In this paper, we construct the financial risk early warning model based on BP neural network, make an empirical analysis of the data between January 2004 and October 2015, proves the reliability of the model prediction results through the training and test of the financial risk early warning model and finally put forward the following suggestions for preventing China's financial risks under the new normal: to reform the current financial supervision mode, to adapt to the mixed operation management demand; to construct the financial risk early warning system suitable for China's reality; the "one bank and three commissions" (which refers to the People's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission) should constantly improve supervision means and technology, strengthen inter-departmental coordination and enhance financial supervision efforts.