A Preliminary Study of Meteotsunami Using Fuzzy Logic Algorithm over Sunda Strait, Indonesia

摘要

Natural hazard disaster from ancient mountain (Krakatoa) is very dangerous for human life at Sunda Strait, Indonesia. Here, the Meteostunami from Krakatoa eruption and Kenanga tropical cyclone minor effect are triggered a tidal wave 3 to 15 meter over Sunda Strait, Indonesia. The early warning sensors tsunami has been worked perfectly in this area. However, a minor component from this sensor cannot asses Meteotsunami due to lack of the meteorological data. Thus, in this study aimed to analyze meteorological parameter during Meteotsunami in one-month observation (1 Dec to 31 Dec 2018) using Fuzzy Logic algorithm. The result shows in 128 combination predictor and target parameter are assessed using correlation analysis to obtain R-sq value. Here, we obtain the best cluster mode e.g. Tidal Elevation (TE) and Wind Speed (WS) as a predictor with Vulcanic Eruption Residual Water Level (RWLve,) and Storm Surge Residual Water Level (RWLss) as a target parameter reached 0.79 of R-sq value. Based on correlation analysis, we successful to obtain the fit Meteotsunami model from meteorological parameters. Here, we obtain the three Membership function's category (μ) using Gaussian Function over predictor and target parameter, respectively. Finally, the fit meteorological parameters can be estimate Meteotsunami model especially over Sunda Straait, Indonesia in near future.