Dynamics of CO_2 Mitigation in Electric Power Industry through Replacements and Early Retirements

摘要

As the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends by year 2012, the long term national greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement targets that individual countries will assume stay ambiguous but the imperative of dramatic reductions over the 21_st century is virtually certain. At the global scale, electric power (EP) industry accounts for 26% of global GHG emissions. Because, electric power production has the largest share in GHG production among other sectors of the economy, and because there are many alternative ways of producing electric power from renewable and non renewable resources other than fossil fuels, EP industry is expected to play a central role in climate change mitigation in many countries. With its rich clean energy potential, Turkey is a particular example. Being a developing economy, Turkey contributes to about one percent of global GHG emissions, and its per capita emissions are equal to and now exceeding the world average. The EP industry in Turkey is responsible for 28% of the national CO_2 emissions. If a viable and sustainable global climate treaty develops in the near future, as a party to the UNFCCC, Turkey will have to assume national abatement targets and face the challenge of shifting its heavily fossil fuel based EP production towardsrenewable energy sources (RES), decentralized generation (DG) and increasing efficiency gains. In this paper, we create a dynamic simulation model of EP industry in Turkey so as to analyze the options for CO_2 mitigation through replacements with clean energy resources and early retirements in fossil fuel based power generation. The model focuses on the supply side of EP sector and represents the investment, production, pricing and financing structures of coal, gas, hydro, wind and solar power plants as well as the existing natural potential for the renewable resources of wind and hydro. Decisions are formulated on annual basis and the model creates foresight for the next twenty years' developments in EP industry subject to alternative policies designed for CO_2 mitigation.