Dynamics Model of Housing Market Surveillance System for Taichung City

摘要

In August 2007, the US subprime mortgage crisis led to a crippling global financial crisis, which created immense monetary and asset losses for the world's economy and financial organizations. Forming a financial crunch and bank credit shrinkage, it halted all economic developments in the world. So, how did Taiwan prevent its housing bubble from bursting? For the purpose of this study, the techniques of system engineering, fuzzy delphi, and system dynamics were used to formulate the dynamics model of housing market surveillance system for Taichung City. The model was simulated with different scenarios of sensitive variables to understand the prospective development of the housing market in Taichung. The research findings showed that a joined strategy of gradual price index movements, high interest rates for loans and lower unemployment rate can effectively strengthen urban housing market risk control, reinforce effective resource utilization and ultimately stimulate overall urban housing market development.