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Forecasting Intra-Hour Imbalances in Electric Power Systems

机译:电力系统中小时内失衡预测

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摘要

Keeping the electricity production in balance with the actual demand is becoming a difficult and expensive task in spite of an involvement of experienced human operators. This is due to the increasing complexity of the electric power grid system with the intermittent renewable production as one of the contributors. A beforehand information about an occurring imbalance can help the transmission system operator to adjust the production plans, and thus ensure a high security of supply by reducing the use of costly balancing reserves, and consequently reduce undesirable fluctuations of the 50 Hz power system frequency. In this paper, we introduce the relatively new problem of an intra-hour imbalance forecasting for the transmission system operator (TSO). We focus on the use case of the Norwegian TSO, Statnett. We present a complementary imbalance forecasting tool that is able to support the TSO in determining the trend of future imbalances, and show the potential to proactively alleviate imbalances with a higher accuracy compared to the contemporary solution.
机译:尽管有经验丰富的人的运营商参与,但保持电力生产与实际需求的平衡正成为一个困难而昂贵的任务。这是由于电网系统的复杂性越来越多,具有间歇可再生生产作为贡献者之一。关于发生不平衡的预先信息可以帮助传输系统操作员调整生产计划,从而通过减少昂贵的平衡储备来确保供应的高安全性,从而降低了50 Hz电力系统频率的不希望的波动。在本文中,我们介绍了对传输系统运营商(TSO)的小时内不平衡预测的相对较新的问题。我们专注于挪威TSO,Statnett的用例。我们介绍了一个互补的不平衡预测工具,可以支持TSO确定未来失衡的趋势,并显示与当代解决方案相比,积极减轻更高的准确性的潜力。

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