Deterministic and Stochastic Simulation: A Combined Approach to Passenger Routing in Railway Systems

摘要

Passenger routing in railway systems has traditionally relied on fixed timetables, working under the assumption that actual performance always matches the planned schedules. The complex variable interplay found in railway networks, however, make it practically impossible for trains to systematically hold the designed timetables as delays are a common occurrence in these systems. A more sensible approach to passenger routing involves assessing the probability distributions that characterize the system and consider them in the routing recommendation. This paper describes one such approach using a simulation model working under both deterministic and stochastic conditions and describes the weak points of a deterministic routing strategy in a complex system.