Influence of Historical Memory on the Dynamics of Social Tension

摘要

The article considers the influence of historical memory on the change of social tension. It is assumed that the memory is fixed on significant events in the past, which can be associated with current events. In case of conflict, the influence of negative historical memory can lead to its intensification, and significantly accelerate its escalation. Negative historical memory, due to legitimation of power, can cause a revolutionary situation. At the same time, a lack of memory of crises, similar to the current one, or a positive historical memory can lead to a conflict decline. The paper modifies the dynamic model of social tension of two interacting social groups: elites and the general public, taking into account the impact of changes in the economic situation and the impact of another social group. Modification of the model is that the exposure perception intensity of one social group regarding the state of the other one depends on historical memory. We revealed that such inclusion of historical memory in the model could have a significant impact on the simulation results, in particular, to explain why the stabilization or destabilization of the social system occurs under the same initial conditions. The cause of destabilization is the strengthening of positive feedback between the tensions of interacting social groups, caused by negative historical memory. It is shown thatconsideration of memory influence concerning the events of 1905 allows making a satisfactory model of the social tension change during the revolution of 1917.