Probabilistic assessment of the buildings and structures construction duration

摘要

One of the main conditions for achieving the set value of the buildings and structures construction duration is the construction production planning. Due to the fact that the construction process has an uncertain dynamic nature, it is recommended to use probabilistic analytical models to determine such a calculated parameter as the duration. The article proposes a probabilistic model for estimating the duration of construction of buildings and structures on the basis of the normalized Erlang's law of the n-th order. This model allows, by changing the number and duration of work lying on the critical path, to assess the construction project completion probability within the prescribed period.