Observed (1961–2009) and projected (2010–2100) climate change over the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin

摘要

Based on the observed data in 1961–2009 and future projected data in 2010–2100, past and future climate change over the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR) basin has been investigated integrally. To promote modeling accuracy, spatial interpolation method considering altitude has been used to observed data, and regional average mean value was used to check the climate change state in the YTR basin. Results show that annual and four seasonal mean air temperature show statistically significant increasing trend in the past and future. Winter warming tendency is more obvious. Annual precipitation shows significant increasing trend of 15.38 mm/decade in the past and 18.57 (A1B), 23.89 (A2), 9.16 (B1) mm/decade in the future. Observed data show a warming and wetting tendency in the YTR basin, while future projected data shows a warmer and wetter future in the 21st century.