Forecast of eutrophication of Panjiakou Reservoir based on Grey-Markov mode

摘要

In order to provide technical support for the government's decision to protect drinking water resource, the Grey-Markov model is used to forecast the Panjiakou Reservoir eutrophication level in a given year. The grey-markov model is introduced in detail in this paper, which including determination of state, calculation of state transfer probability, establishment prediction table, calculation of forecasting value and so on. The nutrient state of Panjiakou Reservoir in 2011 is forecasted based on grey-markov model by using the historical data from 2006 to 2011, the eutrophication index (EI) of Panjiakou Reservoir in 2011 is 57.3, which belongs to light eutrophication level, and it has the trend of changing into medium eutrophication level in recent years. The government should pay much more attention to the eutrophication because of its serious harmfulness. Therefore, it is vitally significant to forecast eutrophication level for a long-term and take the eutrophication preventing and controlling measures for the sustainable development.