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Decision Support for Forest Fire Risk Evaluation: Dynamic Modelling and Spatio-Temporal Integration

机译:决策支持森林火灾风险评估:动态建模与时空集成

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Land cover quickly changes in the Mediterranean area: forest progress on agricultural abandoned lands when scattered urban zone progress into forest areas. As forest fire risk in linked to spatial arrangements, land cover change implies quick changes in forest fire risk level. Cartographic fire risk models elaborated by research for engineering are usually static, and do not take into account this temporal dimension. However, decision-makers need risk change previews for judicious land management planning. A framework to integrate time in spatial risk models is proposed. It is funded on integration of land cover change (vegetation and urbanisation) dynamic models, and forest fire risk models in order to design an environmental decision support system (EDSS). Such a system has to integrate geographical information systems (GIS) with modelling and simulation softwares of land cover changes (vegetation, urbanisation). This spatio-temporal integration can take different forms, from weak coupling up to intelligent integration. Two integration strategies are studied.
机译:地中海地区的土地覆盖迅速变化:散落城区进入森林地区的农业废弃土地上的森林进展。随着森林火灾风险与空间安排相关联,土地覆盖变化意味着森林火灾风险水平的快速变化。工程研究阐述的制图防火风险模型通常是静态的,并且没有考虑到这种时间维度。但是,决策者需要风险变更预览明智的土地管理计划。提出了一种在空间风险模型中集成时间的框架。它基于陆地覆盖变化(植被和城市化)动态模型的整合,以及森林火灾风险模型,以设计环境决策支持系统(EDSS)。这样的系统必须将地理信息系统(GIS)集成,利用陆地覆盖变化(植被,城市化)的建模和仿真软件。这种时空集成可以采用不同的形式,从弱耦合到智能集成。研究了两种整合策略。

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