Logistics distribution mode analysis based on demand forecast

摘要

With rapid development of marketization in rural areas,the demand for logistics in rural areas,especially small-piece logistics for special agricultural products and daily necessities of farmers,has increased exponentially.Meanwhile,the supply of rural small-piece logistics cannot meet the demand over country.At present,postal companies and large private express delivery companies such as SF Express,YunDa Express,and ZhongTong Express are considered to be effective measures to alleviate the unbalanced situation,but their services do not satisfy markets in rural areas in three aspects: reasonable price,high efficiency and quality.In this paper,in order to establish a technically feasible and economically rational joint distribution mode,demand forecast for five counties in Hainan province is carried out based on time series model.Then two types of joint distribution mode are proposed based on the forecast using Logit model.Our results show that bus pick-up mode is suitable for initial start-up stage of rural small-piece logistics distribution projects,and logistics special-purpose vehicle distribution mode is suitable for mature stage of rural small-piece logistics projects.