Saturated Demand Forecast of Regional Power Grid Based on Amended Self-Adaptive Logistic Model: A Case Study of East China

摘要

Saturated power demand is a crucial indicator affecting the scale of power grid development. It is essential for power grid planning to study the saturated trend of power demand and predict the time and scale when the order reaches saturation. In this context, this paper divides the growth process of power demand into three stages, proposes a modified self-adaptive Logistic model, and takes the power demand in East China as an example to verify the accuracy and practicability of the model, and carries out the saturation prediction research. Finally, according to the research results, the corresponding suggestions are put forward.