Prediction Of Arrival Volume Based On Improved Markov SCGM(1,1)c Model

摘要

Aiming at the fact that the arrival gauges of port ships have the characteristics of increasing trend but abnormal fluctuation,and combined with the prediction methods commonly used for random events,this paper proposed a Markov SCGM(l.l)c model for a single-factor system,and the Markov SCGM(l,l)c model is improved by using the method of equal dimension gray number and sliding transfer probability matrix.The results show that the residual mean of the improved Markov SCGM(l,l)c prediction model is reduced to a certain extent,that is,the fitting degree is improved,the prediction accuracy is improved,and the ability to modify the mutation data is enhanced,which meets the actual requirements and provides theoretical support for port anchorage planning.