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Sensitivity Analysis for Dimensionality Reduction in Agent-Based Modeling

机译:基于药剂的模型维数减少的敏感性分析

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Agent-Based Models (ABMs) can be used to numerically simulate highly non-linear phenomena that emerge from local interactions of multiple, independent entities. ABMs are often used to understand dynamic processes such as animal migration in ecology and pathogenesis in biomedicine, in which group-level patterns and space-time constraints are of interest. However, high fidelity ABMs, especially those in biomedical applications, usually have a large number of parameters, creating substantial uncertainty and high dimensionality at both local and global levels. Uncertainty analysis (output variance estimation) and sensitivity analysis are essential steps in investigating model robustness. In addition to allocating uncertainty to each parameter, sensitivity analysis can also be used to reduce ABM dimensionality for effective model calibration and optimization. We review common sensitivity analysis methods that have been used to decrease the number of parameters in complex ABMs, highlighting Garg et al. (2019)'s paper, where random forests - a non-parametric ensemble algorithm - are used as a sensitivity analysis method for ranking parameters in a biomedical ABM.
机译:基于代理的模型(ABMS)可用于数值上模拟高度非线性现象,从多个独立实体的局部相互作用中出现。 ABMS通常用于了解生物医学中生态学和发病机制的动物迁移如动物迁移,其中群体水平模式和时空约束是感兴趣的。然而,高保真ABMS,尤其是生物医学应用的ABM,通常具有大量参数,在本地和全球层面创造了大量的不确定性和高维度。不确定性分析(输出方差估计)和敏感性分析是调查模型稳健性的基本步骤。除了为每个参数分配不确定性之外,敏感性分析还可用于减少ABM维度,以实现有效的模型校准和优化。我们审查了常见的敏感性分析方法,这些方法已被用于减少复杂ABM中的参数的数量,突出显示Garg等。 (2019年)的纸张,其中随机森林 - 非参数集合算法 - 用作生物医学ABM中的参数的灵敏度分析方法。

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