PREDICTION METHOD OF DETERIORATION PROGRESS USING A TWO-DIMENSIONAL MARKOV CHAIN MODEL, BASED ON DETAILED INSPECTION RESULTS OF BRIDGES

摘要

In this study, the transition probability of bridge deterioration was calculated employing a two-dimensional Markov chain model to make the best use of the inspection data. Deterioration prediction was performed using transition probability. This deterioration prediction examined three kinds of damage: cracks, delamination and spalling of cover concrete. This process resulted in the development of our "Deterioration Progress Matrix". This matrix helps us to understand the progress of deterioration in a group of bridges. Based on this understanding, the limits of maintenance performance can be suitably set. Thus, the Deterioration Progress Matrix can be used to improve efficiency in maintenance planning.