Meta-analysis of new passenger car registrations scenarios: Analysis of market development towards an electric vehicle market penetration-Presented at EVS 31 EVTeC 2018, Kobe, Japan, October 1 - 3, 2018

摘要

This study analyses the market penetration of electric vehicles for the European and US American passenger cars market until 2050 with regard to different key parameters such as political, economical and technical. Therefore a meta-analysis is set up with 74 altering scenarios, which have been classified either as conservative, moderate and progressive. Looking in particular at moderate and progressive scenarios, the two markets differ in terms of market share development for internal combustion engine (ICE), Plug-In hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and zero emission vehicles (ZEV). The results demonstrate among others, that PHEV can be seen as a bridge technology for the European market.