Multicriteria Analysis of the Opportunity Cost of the Sale of Paraguayan Energy from Itaipu to the Brazilian Market

摘要

The abundance of clean and renewable electrical energy constitutes a strategic asset for the development of the countries, and Paraguay has great availability of hydroelectric energy based on its participation in the binational power plants Itaipu and Yacyretá, in condominium with Brazil and Argentina.. However, a large part of the electricity production is not consumed in the country and is transferred to both Argentina and Brazil. In this sense, it is clear that the strategic use of the surplus of hydroelectricity that is currently being transferred could be key to lead the process of economic and social development in Paraguay, either by encouraging the consumption of its energy through the installation of industries, thus generating jobs and mobilizing the internal economy, or selling the surplus to third countries. Any selected alternative and the rejection of other alternatives will be inextricably linked to an opportunity cost. This work presents a methodology that allows identifying the opportunity cost of the sale of Paraguayan electricity to the Brazilian electricity market, with the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It was possible to determine energy sales prices in the Brazilian market, for which rents would be generated that would significantly affect the development of Paraguay, ranging from US $63,55/MWh to US $2.841/MWh. It can be concluded that a scenario of high export of Paraguayan hydroelectric energy to Brazil presents an opportunity cost, for several scenarios where decision makers have a notorious predilection for the Economic, Environmental and Social criteria, in addition to some combinations of these criteria with others.