Deriving a Climate-Stabilizing Solution Set of Fleet-Efficiency and Driving-Level Requirements, for Light-Duty Vehicles in California

摘要

An Introduction is provided, including the importance of light-duty vehicles (LDVs: cars and light duty trucks) and the top-level LDV requirements to limit their carbon dioxide ("CO_2") emissions. Climate crisis fundamentals are presented, including its cause, its potential for harm, California mandates, and a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction road map to avoid disaster. A 2030 climate-stabilizing GHG reduction target value is calculated, using statements by climate experts. The formula for GHG emissions, as a function of per-capita driving, population, fleet CO_2 emissions per mile, and the applicable low-carbon fuel standard is given. The ratio of the 2015 value of car-emission-per-mile to the 2005 value of car-emission-per-mile is obtained. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) mileage values from 2000 to 2030 are identified, as either mandates or new requirements. A table is presented that estimates 2015 LDV fleet mileage. Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) parameters are given. Methods are derived to compute equivalent 2030 mileage. Four cases are defined and overall equivalent mileage is computed for each. Those equivalent fleet mileage values are used to compute their corresponding required per-capita driving reductions, with respect to 2005. Measures to achieve the most reasonable per-capita driving reduction are described, with reductions allocated to each measure. A conclusion is presented.