Dike-Break Induced Flood Simulation and Consequences Assessment in Flood Detention Basin

摘要

To mitigate the flood risk in flood detention basin, it is of great significance to accurately simulate the flood movement process and estimate the potential flood consequences induced by dike-break. In this paper, a MIKE21-based numerical approach for modeling of flood movement in the flood detention basin is developed. The approaches for estimating the consequences (e.g., life losses, economic losses and environment losses) caused by dike-break are also presented. The flood movement in the Kangshan flood detention basin in Poyang Lake district, China subjected to the historical highest water level is simulated using a MIKE21 Flow Mode (FM) model. The dike-break induced flood consequences are estimated based on the flood simulation results (including inundation area, water depth, flow velocity and flood peak appeared time). Then, the flood disaster zones are defined and the emergency evacuation planning against dike-break flood is made. The research results can provide important references for quantitatively evaluating the flood risk and formulating flood control and rescue decisions.