EFFECTS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE LONGSHORE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AT THE GERMAN BALTIC SEA COAST

摘要

In this study the effects of regional climate change on the future longshore sediment transport at the German Baltic Sea coast are analysed. On the basis of hourly wave conditions both directional and net transport rates are calculated between 1960-2100 and the long-term changes of the transport rates are analysed over time periods of 30years for the future emission scenarios A1B and B1. A tendency towards higher values of the 30year averages of the net transport capacities (with maximum changes of +50%) is found at locations exposed to westerly wind directions. In contrast, a trend towards lower values exists at locations which are sheltered against westerly winds (with maximum changes of -50%). Moreover the climate change signal is more pronounced to the end of the 21st century and for the emission scenario A1B. Due to the projected changes of the regional climate model it can be concluded that local accumulation and erosion processes can be intensified especially at westerly wind exposed coastal stretches.