Disaster Risk Management: Using a Resilience Systems Approach to Plan for Multiple Stressors

摘要

Though the interconnections between disasters and security are becoming better understood, governments and militaries remain poorly equipped to assess and manage the risks that climate change and disasters pose to security and development. The identification of these risks constitutes only the first step in the process of implementing a risk management approach that effectively reduces vulnerabilities and builds the resilience of state institutions and societies. The next step is deeper analysis of likelihood, severity and variability for each of these risks along a range of climate change scenarios while also situating them within specific geographic, socioeconomic and political contexts. For this, it is necessary to look not just at climate hazards but to the systems within which they play out. A resilience systems analysis provides one way of doing this at a macro level. At the same time, a conflict-sensitive risk analysis enables an understanding of appropriate responses at a local level.