Weather forecasting using Hidden Markov Model

摘要

Since the weather conditions in India are unpredictable, an approach must be developed to forecast weather efficiently. By forecasting weather precisely we can prevent and overcome many hazards that could lead to great loss to a nation. So, in order to do this, Hidden Markov Model was chosen. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a statistical Markov model in which the framework being modeled is thought to be a Markov chain with in hidden (secret) states. In this paper HMM is used to predict weather using Markov Chain property. The training of the model and probability of occurrence of an event is calculated by observing weather data for last 21 years. The data is firstly categorized based on standard values set apart. The result obtained shows that our model is reliable and works very well in predicting weather for next 5 days based on today's weather pattern.